Maryland State Meet

[QCS Admin]

Let me know what you think
www.runningmaryland.com/statepreidcxc06/1A.htm

[frojoe23]

I'd say on the boys side that either Lilley or Cole will place higher than Horton. Surprised not to see more kids from 1A west in the top 15. I'd say that Arbuckle at third is way off. There have been kids come out of that region with winning times faster and they don't crack 18 at Hereford. Was surprised to see Milo Barry in there as well after a disappointing regional meet. As far as the boys team standings go: I see Clear Spring winning and 2nd being up for grabs with Northern and Beall leading the group.

[QCS Admin]

I believe Brad's going to learn alot about Western Maryland this weekend.

[Justin]

Yeah, I agree, kind of strange to have non-westerners cluttered towards the top, especially the boys teams. To have an east region runner that high based on the regional time is a perenial mistake. There's always guys coming out of there with a time in the 15's who gets gobbled up at Hereford.

It's ok though, predictions are just for fun and don't mean much.

[marc]

I personally believe that everyone from the East and Central regions should be docked around 7 places. Previous years show that 1A West always shows up at regions and, for the past 3 years, have walked away with the team title (Beall 2003-2004, Clear Spring 2005). As for individuals, the West region has won the past 4 titles as well (Jordan Davis 2002, Dan DeWitt 2003-2004, Mohamed Khelalfa 2005). This year it looks to be Ryan Bowser and Clear Spring's year. I'm not handing the title to either of them right now but based on the season, it looks to be the case.

So looking at the predictions they are hit or miss. I have never seen either East or Central courses they run for regions so this may be a little bias. It would seem that the East ran on a very fast course this year. These times never reflect how they run at the state meet. Last year the first person that was NOT in the West region was Craig Lindecamp (Perryville) in 22nd. He is projected to be 13th which could be very close to being right since 11 of the 22 in front of him are not in this meet (graduation or otherwise). As for Boheimia Manor, Harford Tech and Marriots Ridge being teams in contention, only one person on any of those team went sub-20 at last years meet. The course is reminiscent of most courses in Western Maryland. Glenndenning and Frankfort are courses that rank close to it in toughness. Don't expect to see the West Region to sweep the State Meet like it has in previous years but expect around 12 of the 15 all-state to be from the West and the top 3 teams as well.

[tommy]

I personally have doubts about how long the East course really is. Flat or not, those times are blazing, and they always are, but it would seem to me that anyone who can run a full 3 mile course in the 15's would be a monster on the track, and we rarely see any dominant East region runners at states.
Just the face that the results list the course length in yards doesnt really inspire confidence in the accuracy of the measurements.
I doubt we'll see any of the shore kids in the top 20. Most of them have never even seen a hill except for highway on-ramps. Richardson on the girls side will probably have a decent showing, but I doubt she'll be as high as the prediction says. I believe she was top 10 last year.

[QCS Admin]

Rumor has it,that they drive to Hereford everyday for practice

[Justin]

I really think too many runners go into races, especially big races like States, with too much information. I never looked at other regional results or even results over the year for that matter in order to prepare for the next race. I liked to look at each one completely fresh, I would study the courses, not the competition. Most of the race is more instinctual than some grand plan. It's tough to plan around conditions and just how the race falls out. The best thing is to be prepared as to how the course is layed out and where your personal capabilities lie and react. It's hard to explain, but after good training and racing all season long, I would know exactly what mile 1 at States should feel like, I knew key areas of the course I think I could run fast on, regardless of where my competition was, and I knew the last mile would be a huge gut check, that's really all I had to know going into the race.

[zach]

Well said Justin. But I can't resist to throw more fuel on the fire in the East. Francis Ciganek ran 15:21 in the Eastern Regional. He then went on to run 17:38 at Hereford. As for what Tommy said this is one guy that was a monster on the track. Can't remember his times but they were fast in the 800 and 1600m. I'm personally with Justin, though, we can spend all week scrutinizing these results and by the time Saturday gets here we have accomplished nothing. Our time is probably better spent preparing mentally for the course and the race. Then the race will fall as it will.

[frojoe23]

Francis Ciganek...a name from the past. Probably the best race I have ever seen at the State Meet was him and South Hagerstown's Dominique Richmond in the 800. They ran side by side the entire last lap and it ended with Richmond making a dive for the tape, but Ciganek won. They both ended up running 1:56 and some change. In fact, Ciganek had the Class 1A record for the 800 until Josh Keyfauver broke it this past spring. I also remember Ciganek running the 1600 in 4:24 for the win that year. I remember it very well. He opened up the first 800 in 2:07 - it was brutally fast, and I was the idiot who tried to run with him early and went through in like 2:09 and then crashed on the last lap only to get toasted in the final 200 by just about everybody in the race. Ciganek went on to run only one season at University of Maryland before he eventually quit. He was extremely talented, but when you only run flat courses in cross, you only get good at running on the track not at Hereford!

[Justin]

That's a perfect example. Ciganek was a great track runner. 4:24, 1A record in the 800, but his XC performances were not at that same level.

I think the Western runners, with the exception of Jordan Davis, has had the opposite problem. We always seem to lay it down in XC, and our track times are probably below our XC performances. A very interesting comparison.

[frojoe23]

To Jimmy K: Chris informed me that he had to work Saturday and won't be able to go to the meet. If you still want a ride down, I can take you. Also, if you know of anybody else that wants to go, I have an open seat. I plan on leaving at around 9AM and stopping for lunch at the Funky Munkey there at Hereford.

[tommy]

My point was that the east region CC results consistently look like this year,s, blazing fast times, but we rarely see track monsters from there. Ciganek is a big exception obviously, but other than him, the only other good east runner I can remember in the past 10 years or so was a decent Kent County miler who's name escapes me. It makes me think the course at the east regional is perhaps slightly off. I could be totally off-base, but that is my opinion on it.

[Justin]

You are correct Tommy, there are fast times out of that Region every year and almost none of those guys go on to break 18 at Hereford.

[jimmy]

Jaron,
I was probably going to go down with my parents since they want to go watch the meet. Thanks for the offer though